Big Tech companies are accelerating into the AI era with unprecedented investments. Total capital expenditures (CapEx) for AI in 2026 are expected to exceed $700 billion (€590 billion)—a 75% increase over 2025—surpassing the entire nominal GDP of Sweden. Global chip sales are projected to hit $1 trillion (€842 billion), and analysts forecast AI CapEx could surpass $5 trillion (€4.2 trillion) by 2030.
Who’s spending what
- Amazon: $200B (€170B)
- Alphabet (Google): $185B (€155B)
- Microsoft: $145B (€122B)
- Meta: $135B (€113B)
- Oracle: $50B (€42.1B)
- Tesla: ~$20B (€16.8B)
- xAI/SpaceX merger: $30B (€25.2B)
Apple lags behind with ~$13B (€10.9B), largely outsourcing AI development through partnerships like its multi-year deal with Google’s Gemini AI. Nvidia is at the core of this spending, supplying the chips and infrastructure needed to sustain the boom.
Wall Street worries
The scale of investment is unprecedented, financed heavily through debt issuance, expected to reach $400B (€337B) in 2026. Analysts warn that high CapEx, energy costs, and rapid hardware obsolescence could make AI growth more expensive than anticipated. Some, like Michael Burry, even view the current AI boom as a potential bubble.
Europe’s challenge
In contrast, Europe’s AI investment remains modest. The EU’s sovereign cloud and AI infrastructure spending is projected at €10.6B in 2026—tiny compared with individual US tech giants. Programs like the AI Factories initiative and the AI Continent Action Plan aim to boost local capacity, but critics argue they cannot match the scale of American spending.
Mistral AI, a French AI startup, stands out as a European exception. The company plans €1.2B for a sovereign data center in Borlänge, Sweden, scheduled for 2027, to provide high-performance AI computing under EU data standards.
Meanwhile, US tech firms offer "sovereign-light" solutions in Europe (e.g., localized cloud zones in Germany and Portugal), but these remain dependent on parent companies in the US, leaving Europe vulnerable to foreign control over data and infrastructure.
The stakes
The US is betting everything—credit, debt, and corporate power—on winning the AI race. Europe is cautious, relying on targeted investments and regulatory frameworks like the AI Act to carve out sovereignty. Whether this approach will be enough to secure Europe’s autonomy in AI remains an open question as the race intensifies.
Big Tech’s AI spending could make European data sovereignty an uphill battle unless bold and coordinated action is taken.
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